Population Projections

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Population Projections

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) prepares sub-national population projections for all local authorities in England. The 2022 based sub-national population projections were published on 24 June 2025, replacing the 2018- based projections. Population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population based on mid-year population estimates and a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. They project forward the mid-2022 population estimates to give an indication of future trends in population by age for the next 25 years, from 2022 to 2047. However, due to high levels of uncertainty the key points presented here focus on projections to 2032. The projections for the longer 25 year time period are available.

These trend-based projections are influenced by past trends in births, deaths and migration, and not by any future developments or policy decisions. They project how the population will change if recent trends continue. The projections are used in many areas of demographic research, including understanding changes in life expectancy and the preparation of the sub-national household projections.

The projections presented use the migration category variant projection model, with more detail available on the Office for national Statistics website.

Note:

Sub national population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict potential changes in international migration. Migration assumptions do not directly account for recent and future policy or economic changes. Demographic assumptions for future fertility, mortality and migration are based on observed demographic trends.

The dashboard below summaries these projections.

2022 Population Projections Key messages

  • Overall Population
    • The population in County Durham is projected to grow by around 6% by 2032. That’s an increase of 31,900 people to 559,600.
    • In comparison changes across NECA and the North East are similar to County Durham (to 2032: NECA/North East 5% increases; to 2047: 9%). However, increases across all Northeast areas are predicted to be lower than those across England (increase of 14.5%) by 2047.
    • The biggest factor in this population change is net internal migration, which will increase the population by around 30,000 people (or 5.7%) by 2032. This will also be the biggest factor in population change in most areas in England.
  • Early Years (0-4)
    • The 0-4 population in County Durham is projected to fall by around 3% by 2032. That’s a fall of 800 children to 23,500.
    • Over the course of the projection period the 0-4 population will stay at around 4% of the total population of the County.
  • School Age (5-17)
    • The school age population in County Durham is projected to fall by around 7% by 2032. That’s a fall of 5,300 school age children, falling to 69,700.
    • By 2032 the primary school aged population will account for 5% of the population (from 6% in 2022).
    • By 2032 the secondary school/sixth-form aged population will account for 7% of the population (from 8% in 2022).
  • Working Age (18-64)
    • Projected increase of 4.6% to 2032. That’s an increase of 14,500 people aged 18-64, to 329,100.
    • By 2032 the working aged population will account for 58.8% of the population (from 59.6% in 2022).
  • Older Years (65+)
    • Projected increase of 20.7% to 2032. That’s an increase of 23,500 residents aged 65+, to 137,200.
    • By 2032 24.5% of the population are projected to be 65+, up from 21.5% in 2022.
  • Older Years (85+)
    • The number of people aged 85+ will increase in the short term to 2032 by 36.5% (+4,900) to 18,400 and is predicted to nearly double in size (an increase of 97%) by 2047 to 26,500.
    • By 2032 3.3% of the population are projected to be 85+, up from 2.6% in 2022.

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The documents we publish on this page are either legally required to be made available for inspection, for information and analysis purposes or may have been supplied by the public and so in some cases may not be fully accessible. If, for any reason, you cannot access the documents and need an alternative format, please email ina@durham.gov.uk.