This page brings together recently released data by the Office for national Statistics (ONS) on aspects of the national economy effected by the Corona-virus Pandemic.  Additionally, using data from the quarterly  Annual Population Survey (APS) and the monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS), analysis on what employment and unemployment might be over the coming months has been estimated.  (Please read the ‘Notes’ at the bottom of this page around these datasets and the limitations of some of this analysis.)

Information presented here covers:

  • Furloughed Employments,
  • Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS),
  • Current estimates of employment,
  • Potential changes to employment/unemployment levels.

Key Messages:

  • It is estimated that 63,900 employments in County Durham have been furloughed,
  • It is estimated that 14,600 (75%) self-employed people in County Durham have made claims under the SEISS up to June 30th 2019,
  • Estimates suggest employment levels in County Durham in April 2020 were around 72.3%,
  • Estimates suggest unemployment levels in County Durham in April 2020 were around 5.9%.

Further economic data on County Durham is available on the following pages:

The following sections provide more detail on these datasets.

Furloughed Employments

Furloughed Employments: HMRC have released a set of experimental statistics detailing the number of employments furloughed down to the Parliamentary Constituency level.  This is the second release of official statistics on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and provides analysis of claims made up until 30 June 2020.  Additional statistics on the CJRS are intended to be published monthly.

Key Messages:

    • It is estimated that 63,900 employments in County Durham have been furloughed.  This is estimated to represent 29.8% of jobs in the county (see Notes below),
    • Across the North East the figure is 329,500 employments of an estimated 29.6% of eligible employments in the North East,
    • Across England the estimate is 7.6 million employments out of an estimated 26.6 million eligible employments. Around 29.7% of all eligible employments in England.

Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS)

The Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) provides support for self-employed individuals whose business has been adversely affected by Coronavirus (COVID-19).  From 13 May eligible self-employed individuals could claim a grant worth 80% of their average monthly trading profits, paid out in a single instalment covering three months’ worth of profits, and capped at £7,500 in total.
 
The data used in this release cover claims to the SEISS scheme up to 30 June 2020. This data has been matched with other HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data.
 
This is the second time this information has been released publicly and has been produced using data from both the SEISS and HMRC’s Self-Assessment (SA) system.
 
Key Messages:
  • It is estimated that 14,600 self-employed people in County Durham have been made claims under the SEISS upto June 30th 2020.  This is estimated to represent 75% of the potentially eligible population at an estimated cost of £38.9 million,
  • However this only represents those eligible to apply under the scheme (estimated at 19,400).  The Annual Population Survey results for 2020 estimate that there were 32,400 self-employed, a difference of 13,000 people who may not have been eligible to apply to this scheme.
  • Across the North East the figure is 71,000 self-employed people.  This is estimated to represent 76% of the potentially eligible population,
  • Across England the estimate is over 2.2 million self-employed people.  This is estimated to represent 75% of the potentially eligible population.

Estimates of Employment and Unemployment

Employment and unemployment estimates for County Durham are available from the Annual Population Survey (APS) which provides estimates on a rolling 12 month average.  However, each release of these data are for the 12 month period ending at least 3 months prior, (current release is covers January 2019 to December 2019).  This means up to date estimates are not readily available and any recent changes will be masked due to the averaging over the previous 12 months.
 
To provide a more timely, estimate for County Durham, data from the monthly release of the Labour Force Survey estimates has been used in this dashboard using the change in the North East rate as a proxy for County Durham.

 

Key Messages:
  • Employment: Using the % change in the NE employment rate it is estimated that the employment rate in County Durham for May 2020 was 72.3%.  (Latest APS: 71.4%),
  • Unemployment: Using the % change in the NE unemployment rate it is estimated that the unemployment rate in County Durham for April 2020 was 5.9%.  (Latest APS: 6.3%).

Potential changes to employment/unemployment levels

Information and data on the potential effects of the Corona-virus Pandemic on the UK economy is mainly available at the national level, and there has been speculation that the number of people unemployed could rise by as much as 10% over the rest of 2020, with a reciprocal fall in employment.
 
However, as unemployment levels in County Durham tend to be higher than those nationally there is the potential for the effect on the county’s employment and unemployment to be more severe than that seen nationally.
The following analysis uses the current levels of employment and unemployment from the latest APS data for April 2019 to March 2020 as a base and then estimates what employment/unemployment might be in 2021 if employment was to fall to a post recession low of 64.8% and unemployment increase to a post recession high of 11.2% (January 2012 to December 2012).

 

Key Messages:
  • If employment levels in County Durham fell to the post recession low of 64.8% it is estimated that the number of people in employment in the county could fall by nearly 21,500, (Current APS: 71.4%),
  • This would seen the number of County Durham residents in employment falling from 231,500 to around 210,000,
  • If unemployment levels in County Durham increased to the post recession high of 11.2% it is estimated that the number of people unemployed in the county could increase by around 12,000, (Current APS: 6.3%),
  • This would seen the number of County Durham residents unemployed nearly double from 15,700 to around 27,700.

Notes

Furloughed Employments

  1. There is a difference in employees and employment/jobs. An employee is an individual; Employment refers the number of jobs. It is possible for a person to have more than one job.
 
Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS)
  1. Experimental Statsics.

Further information can be found on the GOV.UK website: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/self-employment-income-support-scheme-statistics-july-2020

Current estimates of employment

  1. The LFS is a rolling 3 month average released each month to a regional level. Current release covers Feb to March 2020.
  2. The APS is a rolling 12 average released every quarter to Parliamentary Constituency level. Current release covers Apr 2019 to Mar 2020.
  3. Using the LFS, the % change to the NE rate is applied to the nearest rate in the APS for County Durham.
  4. These estimates assume that changes in employment/unemployment in County Durham follow the same path as they do in the NE.
  5. Employment/unemployment rates in County Durham may vary from these estimates and they are used here only to point to a suggested trajectory of these rates in the county.
  6. There are differences in the time periods covered by these surveys.

Potential changes to employment/unemployment levels

  1. The APS is a rolling 12 average released every quarter to Parliamentary Constituency level. Current release covers Apr 2019 to Mar 2020.
  2. This latest release from the APS has been used as the base point for this analysis.
  3. Estimates of count and rates are based on equal incremental changes between the current rates and those at the post 2008 recession employment lows (64.8%)/unemployment highs (11.2%) seen in January 2012 to December 2012.
  4. These estimates should be regarded as ‘what might be’ as there is significant uncertainty around the effects of this pandemic on the UK economy, given current governmental support and the measures proposed for the coming months.