This page brings together recently released data by the Office for national Statistics (ONS) on aspects of the national economy effected by the Corona-virus Pandemic.  Additionally, using data from the quarterly  Annual Population Survey (APS) and the monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS), analysis on what employment and unemployment might be over the coming months has been estimated.  (Please read the ‘Notes’ at the bottom of this page around these datasets and the limitations of some of this analysis.)

Note: There is significant uncertainty around how local economies will be effected by the COVID 19 pandemic and so the information on this page is intended to provide a possible trajectory of how levels of employment and unemployment might change over the coming months.  It is not intended to provide definitive numbers or predictions and statistical evidence at the local authority level may not become available until spring/summer 2021.

Information presented here covers:

  • Furloughed Employments,
  • Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS Tranche 5 from 1st May 2021),
  • Small to medium grant payments
  • Estimates of employment and unemployment from the Annual Population Survey (APS),
  • Experimental estimates of employment and unemployment using more recent data.

Key Messages:

  • It is estimated that 10,500 employments in County Durham were furloughed, in July 2021, 5% of all eligible employments,
  • It is estimated that 4,700 claims by eligible self-employed people in County Durham have made claims under the SEISS Tranche 5 since 1st May 2021, representing 24% of the eligible population,
  • Nearly £10m has been paid in grants, to small to medium firms in the county in this tranche,
  • Estimates suggest employment levels in County Durham in the period April 2020 to March 2021 (APS) were around 72.3%, experimental estimates suggest employment levels could be 72.9% in July 2021,
  • Estimates suggest unemployment levels in County Durham in the period  April 2020 to March 2021 (APS) were around 5.5%, experimental estimates suggest unemployment levels could be 4.9% in July 2021.

Further economic data on County Durham is available on the following pages:

The following sections provide more detail on these datasets.

Furloughed Employments

Furloughed Employments: HMRC have released a set of experimental statistics detailing the number of employments furloughed down to the Parliamentary Constituency level.

Further information can be found on the GOV.UK website: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrc-coronavirus-covid-19-statistics

Key Messages:

  • It is estimated that 10,500 employments in County Durham were furloughed in July 2021.  This was estimated to represent 5% of jobs in the county (see Notes below),
  • Across the North East the figure was 53,100 employments of an estimated 5% of eligible employments in the North East,
  • Across England the estimate was 1.3 million employments out of an estimated 23.9 million eligible employments. Around 6% of all eligible employments in England,
  • Estimates suggest that around 82,700 unique jobs have been furloughed in County Durham since the start of the scheme in March 2020, representing 40.4% of eligible employments in the county,
  • The Manufacturing had the highest estimated number of furloughed employments in County Durham in July 2021 at 2,910, or 27.7% of all eligible jobs,
  • The Accommodation and food services had the second highest with 1,420 furloughed employments, or 13.6% of all eligible jobs in that sector.
Click on the three dots in the top right corner of the following Infogram to view full screen (ESC to exit).

Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) Tranche 5 (Available from 1st May 2021)

Note: The following refers to the fourth tranche of the scheme which started taking applications on 1st May 2021.
From 1st May 2021 applications for the fifth grant of SEISS opened. This grant is worth either 80% or 30% of their average monthly trading profits, paid out in a single instalment covering 3 months’ worth of profits, and capped at £7,500 for the higher percentage or £2,850 for the lower percentage. These categories will be referred to as the higher grant and lower grant, respectively.
 
The data used in this release covers claims to the SEISS (5) scheme to 15th August 2021. This data has been matched with other HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data.
 
This is the fifth time this information has been released publicly and has been produced using data from both the SEISS and HMRC’s Self-Assessment (SA) system.
 
Key Messages:
  • It is estimated that 4,700 claims have been made by eligible self-employed people in County Durham under the SEISS (Tranche 5) between 1 May and 15 August 2021. This is estimated to represent a 24% take-up rate of the potentially eligible population at an estimated value of £9.9 million,
  • Across the North East the figure is 23,000 claims. This is estimated to represent a 25% take-up rate of the potentially eligible population,
  • Across England the estimate is nearly 697,000 claims. This is estimated to represent a 19% take-up rate of the potentially eligible population.

 

COVID Grant Funding

This data covers 3 coronavirus grant schemes:
 
  • Small Business Grants Fund (SBGF),
  • Retail, Hospitality and Leisure Business Grants Fund (RHLGF),
  • Local Authority Discretionary Grants Fund (LADGF),
The data shows the total amount of money that each local authority in England:
  • received from central government,
  • distributed to SMEs
Note: Hereditaments = small and medium businesses identified by the local authority.
 
For further information:

 

Key Messages:

  • The initial allocation made to County Durham was £107,296,000,
  • The number of hereditaments that the local authority identified that may be in scope to receive a grant was 8,924 as at 30 September 2020,
  • The value of these hereditaments was estimated at £99,935,000,
  • All hereditaments in County Durham received a payment as identified by the authority.

Estimates of Employment/Unemployment (APS)

Employment and unemployment estimates for County Durham are available from the Annual Population Survey (APS) which provides estimates on a rolling 12 month average.  However, each release of these data are for the 12 month period ending at least 3 months prior, (current release is covers April 2020 to March 2021).  This means up to date estimates are not readily available and any recent changes will be masked due to the averaging over the previous 12 months.
The following infographics summarise these current estimates from the Annual Population Survey.
 

Experimental Estimates of Employment/Unemployment

Employment

The following presents two scenarios to estimate possible current levels of employment in County Durham.

  • Scenario 1: Employment falls to the same low seen following the 2008 recession, (64.8% in 2012),
  • Scenario 2: Uses the latest regional employment rate from the LFS to model change in the County employment rate,

Unemployment

The following presents four scenarios to estimate possible current levels of unemployment in County Durham.

  • Scenario 1: Unemployment reaches the same high seen following the 2008 recession, (11.2% in 2012),
  • Scenario 2: Models levels of unemployment given increases in the Unemployment Rate up to a rate of 14%,
  • Scenario 3: Uses the latest regional Unemployment Rate from the LFS to model change in the County Unemployment Rate,
  • Scenario 4: Uses the change in the ONS Experimental Claimant Count to model change in the APS Unemployment Rate.

Notes

Furloughed Employments

  1. There is a difference in employees and employment/jobs. An employee is an individual; Employment refers the number of jobs. It is possible for a person to have more than one job.
 
Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS)
  1. Experimental Statistics.

Further information can be found on the GOV.UK website: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrc-coronavirus-covid-19-statistics#self-employment-income-support-scheme

Current estimates of employment/unemployment
  1. The APS is a rolling 12 average released every quarter to Parliamentary Constituency level. Current release covers April 2020 to March 2021.