Note: This page is no longer updated and is for historic purposes only.
This page brings together data released by the Office for national Statistics (ONS) during COVID, on aspects of the national economy effected by the Corona-virus Pandemic. Additionally, using data from the quarterly Annual Population Survey (APS) and the monthly Labour Force Survey (LFS), analysis on what employment and unemployment might be over the coming months has been estimated. (Please read the ‘Notes’ at the bottom of this page around these datasets and the limitations of some of this analysis.)
Note: There is significant uncertainty around how local economies will be effected by the COVID 19 pandemic and so the information on this page is intended to provide a possible trajectory of how levels of employment and unemployment might change over the coming months. It is not intended to provide definitive numbers or predictions and statistical evidence at the local authority level may not become available until spring/summer 2021.
Information presented here covers:
- Furloughed Employments,
- Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS Tranche 5 from 1st May 2021),
- Small to medium grant payments
- Estimates of employment and unemployment from the Annual Population Survey (APS),
- Experimental estimates of employment and unemployment using more recent data.
- It is estimated that 7,700 employments in County Durham were furloughed, in September 2021, 4% of all eligible employments,
- It is estimated that 58,500 claims by eligible self-employed people in County Durham have made claims under the SEISS with an estimated value of £145.3 million,
- Nearly £10m has been paid in grants, to small to medium firms in the county in this tranche,
- Estimates suggest employment levels in County Durham in the period October 2020 to September 2021 (APS) were around 71.5%, experimental estimates suggest employment levels could have been 71.8% in December 2021,
- Estimates suggest unemployment levels in County Durham in the period October 2020 to September 2021 (APS) were around 4.5%, experimental estimates suggest unemployment levels could have been 4.3% in December 2021.
Further economic data on County Durham is available on the following pages:
The following sections provide more detail on these datasets.
Furloughed Employments: HMRC have released a set of experimental statistics detailing the number of employments furloughed down to the Parliamentary Constituency level.
Further information can be found on the GOV.UK website: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrc-coronavirus-covid-19-statistics
- It is estimated that 7,700 employments in County Durham were furloughed in September 2021. This was estimated to represent 4% of jobs in the county (see Notes below),
- Across the North East the figure was 38,300 employments of an estimated 4% of eligible employments in the North East,
- Across England the estimate was 0.97 million employments out of an estimated 23.9 million eligible employments. Around 4% of all eligible employments in England,
- Estimates suggest that around 82,900 unique jobs have been furloughed in County Durham since the start of the scheme in March 2020, representing 40.4% of eligible employments in the county,
- The Manufacturing had the highest estimated number of furloughed employments in County Durham in September 2021 at 2,340, or 30.4% of all eligible jobs,
- The Accommodation and food services had the second highest with 910 furloughed employments, or 11.8% of all eligible jobs in that sector.
Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS)
- It is estimated that 58,500 claims have been made by eligible self-employed people in County Durham under the SEISS with an estimated value of £145.3 million,
- Across the North East the figure is 290,000 claims with an estimated value of £145.3 million,
- Across England the estimate is 9 million claims with an estimated value of £24.5 billion.
COVID Grant Funding
This data covers coronavirus grant schemes managed by local authorities on behalf of SMEs:
- Additional Restrictions Support Grant (ARG)
- Restart Grant – closed June 2021
- Local Restrictions Support Grants (LRSG) and Christmas support payments – Open during restrictions
- Local Restrictions Support Grants (LRSG) and Christmas support payments – Closed due to restrictions
- Christmas Support Grant
- Small Business Grants Fund (SBGF) – closed August 2020 and Retail, Hospitality and Leisure Business Grants Fund (RHLGF) – closed August 2020
- Local Authority Discretionary Grants Fund (LADGF) – closed August 2020
Note: Hereditaments = small and medium businesses identified by the local authority.
Estimates of Employment/Unemployment (APS)
Experimental Estimates of Employment/Unemployment
The following presents two scenarios to estimate possible current levels of employment in County Durham.
- Scenario 1: Employment falls to the same low seen following the 2008 recession, (64.8% in 2012),
- Scenario 2: Uses the latest regional employment rate from the LFS to model change in the County employment rate,
The following presents four scenarios to estimate possible current levels of unemployment in County Durham.
- Scenario 1: Unemployment reaches the same high seen following the 2008 recession, (11.2% in 2012),
- Scenario 2: Models levels of unemployment given increases in the Unemployment Rate up to a rate of 14%,
- Scenario 3: Uses the latest regional Unemployment Rate from the LFS to model change in the County Unemployment Rate,
- Scenario 4: Uses the change in the ONS Experimental Claimant Count to model change in the APS Unemployment Rate.
- There is a difference in employees and employment/jobs. An employee is an individual; Employment refers the number of jobs. It is possible for a person to have more than one job. Further information can be found on the GOV.UKwebsite.
- Experimental Statistics. Further information can be found on the GOV.UK website
- The APS is a rolling 12 average released every quarter to Parliamentary Constituency level. Current release covers October 2020 to September 2021.