Population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population based on mid-year population estimates and a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. Available for the UK and its constituent countries as national population projections and for the regions, local authorities and clinical commissioning groups in England as sub-national population projections. These projections are widely used for resource allocation and planning.

The documents we publish on this page are either legally required to be made available for inspection, for information and analysis purposes or may have been supplied by the public and so in some cases may not be fully accessible. If, for any reason, you cannot access the documents and need an alternative format, please email ina@durham.gov.uk.

2018 Projections

Factsheets and data:

Key Messages:

  • The overall population of County Durham is projected to grow by 3.7% (+19,500 people) between 2018 and 2028 to 546,500 people,
  • The overall population of County Durham is projected to grow by 6.6% (+34,500 people) between 2018 and 2043 to 561,500 people,
  • The number of pre-school children aged 0 to 4 is projected to decrease by 6.7% (1,800 fewer) from 27,000 by 2028 falling to 25,200 and then to continue to fall until 2040 when it will show a small recovery increasing to 27,600 by 2043,
  • The number of children and young people aged 5 to 17 are predicted to increase by 2.2% (+1,700) by 2028 rising to 75,700 and then fall to 72,800 by 2043, an overall decrease of only 1.7% 2018 to 2043,
  • The number of people aged 18 to 64 will fall slightly by 0.2% by 2028 to 316,700 people and by 0.6% by 2043 to 315,300 people,
  • The number of people aged 65 and over will increase by 18.7% (+20,300) by 2028 to 128,900 and by 34.3% by 2043 to 145,900,
  • Positive net migration remains the main driver behind population growth in the county even though projections of this have been reduced over the last few iterations of projections.

2016 Projections

Factsheets:

Key Messages:

  • The overall population of County Durham is projected to grow by 3.0% (+15,600 people) between 2016 and 2026 to 537,300 people,
  • The overall population of County Durham is projected to grow by 5.6% (+29,000 people) between 2016 and 2041 to 550,800 people,
  • The number of people aged 18 to 64 will fall by 1.8% (-5,500) by 2026 to 310,500 people and by 3.9% (-12,400) by 2041 to 303,700 people,
  • The number of people aged 65 and over will increase by 17.8% (+18,700) by 2026 to 124,100 and by 39.1% (+41,200) by 2041 to 146,600,
  • Positive net migration remains the main driver behind population growth in the county even though projections of this have been reduced over the last few iterations of projections.

Previous Factsheets and Links to Data: